One country.
Three climates.

Each year's newly established oil palm (Descals planting-year layer) beside the previous year's burn. Planting year stamps the current stand — it includes replanting on old palm land, not only forest-to-palm expansion.

Implied sector take = CPO price × production — a price × volume estimate, not a filings sum. Company rows are IDX filings. Click a row to toggle its trendline — the gold line always sums what's selected.

Each bar is a month of national estimated cases. Darker bands mark El Niño episodes, lighter bands La Niña. Teal ticks are TimesFM-3 (Google foundation model, climate + ENSO covariates) out-of-time one-month-ahead estimates — made before each month happened, never hindsight. Over this window it lands 16.3% weighted error vs 21.7% for last-month persistence. In simulation mode the outlined bars compare the HGB lever scenario against the TimesFM-3 national forecast for Jan 2025.